The warnings from Anton Gerashchenko land with the weight of bitter experience. He watched Moscow build the same narrative before Georgia in 2008, before Crimea in 2014, before the full‑scale assault on Ukraine in 2022: claims of “Russophobia,” discrimination, language bans, persecution. Each time, legal arguments and diplomatic complaints were never the endgame, only the opening act. They created a moral pretext, a story Russia could point to when it chose to escalate.

What makes the Baltic scenario different is the red line drawn by NATO. Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are not isolated, and the Kremlin knows any open attack would trigger consequences on a scale unseen in decades. Yet hybrid pressure, legal theatrics, and psychological warfare demand far less risk. That may be the real objective now: to test the alliance’s resolve, sow fear among Russian speakers, and keep the region permanently on edge.