It sounds like something out of political fan fiction — Donald Trump going up against Barack Obama in a presidential race.
But according to a brand-new poll, we now know how Americans say they would vote if the two ever faced off on the 2028 ballot.
“I’d love that…”
Of course, the Constitution’s 22nd Amendment makes such a matchup impossible. Presidents can only serve two terms, which rules both men out.
Still, with Trump openly floating the idea of a third term and Obama remaining quiet on the matter, the hypothetical showdown has captured plenty of attention.
In April, President Donald Trump was asked how he would feel about running against his predecessor in 2028. His response? Pure enthusiasm.
“I’d love that. That would be a good one. I’d like that,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office.
Pressed further, he added:
“No people are asking me to run, and there’s a whole story about running for a third term. I don’t know. I never looked into it. They do say there’s a way you can do it, but I don’t know about that, but I have not looked into it. I want to do a fantastic job. We have four years… It’s still close to four years.”
It’s not the first time Trump has hinted at testing the constitutional limits. Earlier this year, he told NBC News: “A lot of people want me to do it. But, I mean, I basically tell them we have a long way to go, you know, it’s very early in the administration.”
And with a grin, he added: “I like working. I’m not joking, but I’m not… it is far too early to think about it. There are methods [through] which you could do it.”
The hypothetical numbers are in
While the matchup may never happen in reality, Daily Mail and J.L. Partners decided to test the waters with American voters anyway. They surveyed 1,013 registered voters — and the results were striking.
- 52% said they would choose Barack Obama
- 41% said they would back Donald Trump
Breaking it down by demographics:
- 73% of Hispanic voters sided with Obama
- 68% of Black voters preferred Obama as well
Perhaps most notably, Obama was the only recent Democratic figure to beat Trump in the hypothetical polling. When Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris were included, Trump came out on top.
Obama vs. Trump: The Race That Never Was
Obama first swept into the White House in 2008 and secured reelection in 2012. Trump followed with his surprise 2016 victory, lost in 2020, and returned to power in 2024 — making the two men the most dominant political forces of the past two decades.
Yet despite their legacies being deeply intertwined, they’ve never gone toe-to-toe at the ballot box. Until now, at least, in the world of “what if” polling.
Could it ever really happen?
Right now, the idea of Trump running in 2028 — or Obama coming out of political retirement — seems far-fetched. The law makes it nearly impossible, but Trump himself has teased the idea more than once.
As he said: “I’m not joking… there are methods.”
Changing the Constitution would take approval from two-thirds of both the House and Senate, plus ratification from at least 38 state legislatures.
