Earth Could Warm by 7°C by 2200

A new study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) warns that global temperatures could rise by 7°C (12.6°F) by 2200, even if carbon emissions are moderately reduced.

Such extreme warming could trigger widespread food shortages, sea level rise, and increasingly severe droughts, storms, and wildfires.

“Only Very Low Emissions” Can Avoid Disaster

The study urges immediate action to drastically cut emissions.

Researchers stress that even moderate reductions won’t be enough:

“Only very low emission scenarios can meet the Paris Agreement goal of keeping temperature rise below 2°C.” The window to act is closing rapidly, and without stronger policies, we risk passing dangerous climate thresholds.

Methane and Climate Feedback Loops

Besides carbon dioxide, methane emissions—especially from wetlands and landfills—play a major role in accelerating warming.

The study also highlights climate feedback loops, where warming triggers events like wildfires, which then release more greenhouse gases. In one example, “wildfires triggered by rainfall” could worsen global heating further.

The Need for Faster, Bolder Action

Current efforts to curb emissions are not enough. The researchers used a new simulation model and found that even with planned reductions, warming could spiral beyond expectations. As the study notes, “even low-to-moderate emissions could lead to higher-than-expected warming.” Avoiding catastrophe depends on drastically slashing emissions now—before irreversible changes take hold.